Population Site: Software: FIVFIV
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    We are deeply saddened that Fred Shorter passed away on Tuesday, February 21, 2012. It has been a great privlege to have worked with him on the FIVFIV project for over 35 years.

    Computational Methods for Population Projections FIVFIV 98d
    Population Projection Software

    Planning organizations in more than 100 countries have used this software to make population projections at national, regional, and city levels. It is also used widely for teaching and research in order to illustrate demographic theorems and to do simulations for analytical purposes.

    FIVFIV was originally developed at the Office of Population Research, Princeton University by Frederic C. Shorter, and further developed by Frederic C. Shorter, Robert Sendek, and Yvette Bayoumy at the Population Council. The authors of the software are now owners of or consultants to HPN Technologies Inc. which purchased all rights to the package in September 1996. The authors of FIVFIV want to thank all of the users world-wide who have expressed their appreciation for the software's development and have sent many useful suggestions as to how to improve the package. We hope to be able to continue development and are planning a Windows version. Any organization interested in helping to fund such a project should contact Robert Sendek at support@hpntech.com

    FIVFIV has a wide variety of options to accomodate a range of assumptions and output choices.

    Planning and statistical organizations: Although national projections are produced and published regularly by the World Bank and the UN Population Division, FIVFIV may be used to revise and update projections without any time lag according to new, or more accurate, information and assumptions. Planning and statistical authorities may also require projections at regional, provincial, city, or other levels of the population. FIVFIV can meet these needs.

    Academic and training institutions: For teaching about the growth and structure of human populations, projections can demonstrate specific theorems; e.g., populations forget their past and converge to stable populations when fertility and mortality are held constant. The use of "what if" assumptions is another technique for demonstrating theorems. Projections for particular countries or cities, are used to explore prospects for the future, or reverse projections can be used to reconstruct recent history.

    The manual, Computational Methods for Population Projections explains the logical foundations of projections, and the kinds of inputs that are required to make a population projection. It gives examples and, in fact, is a short course on projections. Although FIVFIV makes it "easy" with a question and answer session, projections are not a computer game. It is advisable to use the manual along with the computer to make good projections. The manual may be downloaded or purchased from HPN Technologies Inc. Using the FIVFIV software assumes the user has a basic knowledge of demography.

    FIVFIV (the computer program) comes in four languages, English, French, Spanish, and Turkish. The user can switch from one language to another. More languages may be added later. It runs on personal computers (PCs) under DOS 2.0 or higher if they have at least 256Kb of memory -- more is of course better. It can run on floppy disk systems (e.g. for teaching) when necessary. See our technical note for further restrictions of the software on newer computers.

    What's new in FIVFIV 98

    FIVFIV 98 is a major upgrade from FIVFIV 11.1. The authors would like to thank The Population Reference Bureau and the David and Lucile Packard Foundation for the funding necessary to make this upgrade possible. We would also like to thank Paula Hollerbach and Virginia Coon of the Association for Educational Development for the Spanish translations required for the upgrade and Jean Lachaud for the French translations required for the upgrade.

    FIVFIV 98 includes the following major improvements:

    • Extrapolation of the east, west, north and south lifetables to 31 levels

    • The ability to aggregate in clusters

    • The ability to aggregate over stabe extends, old pops and differing initial years

    A full description of these revisions is available in the FIVFIV 98 Release Notes. Current users may update their existing versions and new users may order a copy of FIVFIV 98 by mailing in a copy of the FIVFIV 98 order form. A downloadable evaluation copy of FIVFIV 98 is also available.

    FIVFIV 98d -- Maintenance Release (May 2000)

    FIVFIV 98d is a maintenance/upgrade release to supercede FIVFIV 98c. It contains no new features. However, it corrects a problem in the aggregation of populations that have migration which produced incorrect output in the following summary tables:

      MIDPERIOD INDICES FOR FIVE-YEAR TIME PERIODS
        YEARLY DEATHS
        NET YEARLY MIGRANTS

      YEARLY RATES PER THOUSAND POPULATION

        DEATH RATE
        NATURAL INCREASE
        NET MIGRATION

    Note that the detail tables for aggregate runs that contained migration were correct, and aggregate runs that contained no migration information were also correct. The problem was caused by an array in the program which was not correctly re-initialized for the aggregate run, but instead carried forward the net migration summary information from the final non-aggregate projection. In most cases the incorrect numbers were quite noticeably incorrect and would most likely have not been overlooked as being correct. We are most grateful to Maire Rodgers of the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency for alerting us to this problem.

    FIVFIV 98d also further refines the way in which single year interpolations are computed. The single-year single-age interpolation procedure is significantly improved. It now uses only diagonal interpolation for the single-single matrix. Various clients have expressed a desire to have such a change, since it is a better reflection of what is expected intuitively if a genuine single-year-of-age projection were made. However, interpolations are just that, interpolations not real single-year projections. When the single-single interpolation array is REGROUPed by age bands of several years or more, the horizontal results appear to be reasonable. It is not recommended to use horizontal interpolations for the very lowest ages, such as 0 and 1, even though they logically complete the matrix. Nor should too much significance be given to interpolations for the first two or three years of a projection, because no information about the population parameters prior to the base date is available to help fix the interpolations.

    In addition, FIVFIV 98d fixes the PUNCH.FIVE option so that it will also output information for aggregate projections (if PUNCH.FIVE is used in ANY projection, it will produce output for ALL aggregate projections).

    Finally, FIVFIV 98d contains some updated sample files as well as a samples.txt file which describes the samples included with the software.

    The authors appreciate feedback, and thank those who have contributed to the improvement of this much-used software. E-mail address: support@hpntech.com.

    Users of versions of FIVFIV prior to FIVFIV 98d should upgrade their software to the latest version by downloading the latest program.zip and readme.txt files.

    FIVFIV 98c -- Maintenance Release

    FIVFIV 98c is a maintenance release to supercede FIVFIV 98b. It contains no new features; however, it modifies further the single-year single-age interpolation procedure. It now makes maximum use of diagonal interpolation instead of horizontal interpolation which had been used at younger ages, below 11. Various clients have expressed a desire to have such a change, since it is a better reflection of what is expected intuitively if a genuine single-year-of-age projection were made. However, interpolations for the first 15 years are just that, not real projections. Logical inconsistencies compared to a real single-year-of-age projection occur, but are not thought to be serious. When the single-single interpolation array is REGROUPed by age bands of several years or more, the results appear to be reasonable.

    Special thanks to Dr. Barbel Haldenwang, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Futures Research, University of Stellenbosch in South Africa, for a discussion of preferences which helped us set goals for this revision.

    An obscure and rarely occurring problem with printouts from REVERSE projections is also corrected in 98c (note: the problem with REVERSE that was corrected did not cause any incorrect results, but rather caused the FIVFIV run to abort too soon -- any results that were printed were correct).

    Users of versions of FIVFIV prior to FIVFIV 98d should upgrade their software to the latest version by downloading the latest program.zip and readme.txt files.

    FIVFIV 98b -- Maintenance Release

    FIVFIV 98b is a maintenance release to FIVFIV 98a. It contains no new features; however, it corrects a problem with interpolation procedures for single ages and single years. Such procedures are necessarily arbitrary and should always be used with care (see the Manual pp. 64-65). Changes are made in FIVFIV 98b to improve the single-age distributions by single years up to 10 years of age. The single-age distributions at five-year time intervals are unchanged. However, for years between these five-year time points, horizontal, exponential (geometric) interpolation is used to replace the more complex procedures that were formerly used. The change was made to avoid sometimes unreasonable results that occurred when there were sudden changes in the population matrix due to such factors as large migration flows.

    We would like to thank Maire Rodgers of the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency for bringing this problem to our attention.

    Users of versions of FIVFIV prior to FIVFIV 98d should upgrade their software to the latest version by downloading the latest program.zip and readme.txt files.

    FIVFIV 98a -- Maintenance Release

    FIVFIV 98a is a maintenance release to FIVFIV 98. It contains no new features; however, it corrects a problem with Aggregated Mortality that sometimes occurred with diverse individual component projections. Although the Aggregate routine in FIVFIV 98 produced reliable aggregated projections of population, migration and fertility, the aggregated mortality indices had some problems. These indices should properly be based on birth and population-weighted averages of survival rates from the individual projections. In FIVFIV 98a, the indices for aggregated survival rates (Print PX), expectations of life e0 and e5, IMR and net reproductive rates (NRR) are corrected. All component individual projections remain reliable and are unchanged from FIVFIV 98.

    We would like to thank Maire Rodgers of the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency for bringing this problem to our attention.

    Users of versions of FIVFIV prior to FIVFIV 98d should upgrade their software to the latest version by downloading the latest program.zip and readme.txt files.

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Phone: 360-693-6285; Fax: 360-693-6289; E-mail: support@hpntech.com

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